The Edge of Industry

"3D printing will massively reduce the cost of certain products as it democratizes manufacturing and enables people to print what they need at home." - Chris Anderson

In the 1980's, companies started outsourcing and focused on their core competencies. The world became smaller, shipping faster and bigger. In the 1990's companies started off-shoring. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic revealed serious shortcomings to off-shoring. Companies started reshoring or nearshoring.

The pandemic revealed things to the average person too. People re-discovered the internet and began leveraging the power of presence.

Technology continues to improve the way people exchange value among themselves. The next big shift in industrialization will be "in-housing". A decentralization of Industry. Manufacturing will move closer to the end user until it resides in their house. In the future, most manufacturing will take place inside the domicile. The time between purchase and delivery will vanish.

Why do I believe this is the natural progression for Industry? The answer lies in the Value Equation so eloquently presented by Alex Hormozi in his book, "100M Offers".

Alex Hormozi's Value Equation- 100M Offers

End users of durable goods who have manufacturing capability within reach will essentially have the lowest time delay possible putting the time delay factor of the equation as close to zero as possible. This renders the equation closer to infinite value than ever before.

If that's the case, why hasn't it happened already?

Image from Getty Images

Big Business

You might be surprised to read that 99.9% of all businesses in the United States are small businesses. With so much brand recognition pulling our mass consumer confidence towards big business that statistics seems to be misrepresented.

Things start to make more sense when you notice that big business represents 52.9% of the private workforce and purportedly 56% of the total GDP.

It stands to reason that big business influences the trajectory of industry. A world of inhousing where the majority of manufacturing is decentralized and spread out would remove big business dominance as the barrier to entry and product sales would rely on the design of products.

The kind of big business matters a ton here. There is big business that sells direct to consumers and there is big business that sells to other businesses. Its the relationship between the business to business (B2B) corporations that keep things going the way they are. These big businesses want to keep the barrier to entry so high that other entrepreneurs need massive war chests to even think about competing.

The COVID-19 pandemic changed this.

With storefronts shut down, businesses were forced to change their models and business to consumer was the only way to stay alive. Once companies got a hit of sales direct to consumers, many never came back.

Image from article- https://medium.com/@saeid_90285/the-missing-piece-solving-the-fragmentation-puzzle-in-aec-industry-c03d52152c66Fragmenting Industry

COVID shook the world.

Companies shuttered, people were laid off; the market was in shambles. The world came crumbling down. Of course, people thought everyone was going to die.

The big shakeup turned everyone's attention to the internet. Individuals realized how lucrative it was to start their own online business. People launched podcasts, started online courses, released writing subscriptions, uploaded video on YouTube, artists sold their work as NFTs. There was a world of possibilities and with nowhere else to go even if they wanted to, people dove deeper into the internet.

Podcasts based on niche subjects sky-rocketed. Personal blogs and subscription services propped up thousands of writers. The world was in shambles but technology made it easier for individuals to pivot and start their own businesses with less capital than ever before.

In the midst of this newfound growth of industry a few corporations grew bigger still. With everyone wading in the deep waters of the internet, online purchases grew. These were goods only one company was positioned well enough to deliver on, Amazon.

Depending on where you live today you can place an order on Amazon in the morning and have that item delivered to you early that afternoon. It's bonkers. That level of immediacy of receipt coupled with the ever growing horde of online designers only prove the innate desire for in-housing.

Image from article- https://bettermode.com/blog/community-led-growthDistributed

Market Share

With more people flocking to solo-prenuership and tools such as the NOSTR protocol, where content creators can receive instant payment based on the quality of their online posts, you can see the semblance of a world where big business is reserved only for what big business is good for. (Yes, there will always be a place for big business. I'll get to that in the next section.)

The world would be a very different place when statistics reveal over 80% of the GDP produced by solo-prenuers and small business. In this possible future, small businesses selling consumable goods such as food would aggregate in "farmers market" style venues as opposed to flushing a ton of their revenues down the toilet on pricey commercial real-estate. Designers would sell durable goods as rendered 3D files sold in online market places (this is already happening and growing) and consumers would use those files to print goods somewhere close to home, if not directly inside their home.

In this world, there would be less reliance on intricate road systems. Large trucks would become obsolete. There would no longer be a need to tote truckloads of product across town and country. As the streets dwindle away, distances between homes will shrink. Our heavy reliance on personal vehicles will minimize. High speed rail can connect communities in lieu of massive and costly highway systems.

This will drive away the massive profits funneling into big business and help disperse market share more evenly across communities. Decentralization will stymie the reliance we have on big business to conduct research and development. Meta's AI, Llama, is a good example of this already happening. Many more things that were once reserved for big business will democratize, but even then, there will still be a place for mass money aggregation.
Image from ShutterstockNever the End of the Big Guys

I don't believe big industry will ever completely disappear.

There are benefits to economies of scale when producing large industrial products such as heavy equipment for construction, raw materials shipping and storage, and to name a few. In this world of industry on the edge, you have to ask yourself, "Who will bring the raw materials needed as inputs for 3D printers?" Bulk store facilities for thermoplastics, resins, metals, ceramics, and other composites will still be required and someone will have to ship it to those facilities.

Even then, big business will rely on small business for the 'final mile' bringing raw materials to the end consumers.

image from article- https://vux.world/the-future-of-ai-and-humanity-insights-from-a-conversation-with-byron-reese/

When Could This Future Happen?

We are living in an era with a confluence of different technologies coming to a head at the same time. AI technology is making it easier for people to get more done at an individual level. Blockchain technology is showing the world that what was traditionally centralized no longer has to be. Bio-medicine is allowing people to live longer and healthier at a fraction of the cost. With people living longer, feeling more empowered, and given tools like AI to interact you can see the fragments of reality taking form.

The only thing that might hold communities back is the existing infrastructure made to serve economies run by big business.

The United States is in a prime time to make this transition as most of our infrastructure systems have aged to the point of needing a serious overhaul. Rather than spending excessive time and money we don't have on refurbishing the existing system, we could let the private market absorb it. Just imagine all of new real estate in prime locations that will become available once highways can be built on.

With everything primed and ready to make this future a reality the only barrier is inaction. You can take it to the internet. You have the power to bring industry to the edge. You just have to do it.

I want to show the world that life is a scroll riddled with ink. The marks will only ever be simple blots on the parchment unless you pause and perceive them for the characters they are.

I’m constantly thinking about what the future could look like if we just take action.

More of my thoughts about the future and the world around us are coming soon....

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